West Ham United FC
vs Arsenal FC

Premier LeagueMatchday 36Sunday, 10 May 2026 · 16:30 GMT

Win Probability

53%

West Ham United FC Win

29%

Draw

18%

Arsenal FC Win

infoMid Confidence

form_consistency: 0.134 · h2h_availability: 0.2 · archetype_penalty: 0 · data_completeness: 1

Expected Goals (xG)

West Ham United FC1.29
Arsenal FC0.614
format_quote

The predicted outcome of this match is a West Ham United FC win, with the most compelling evidence being the significant gap in expected goals, where West Ham United FC has an xG of 1.29 compared to Arsenal FC's 0.614. This disparity suggests that West Ham United FC is likely to create more scoring opportunities, which, combined with their win probability of 53.0%, indicates a strong likelihood of them emerging victorious.

Despite this prediction, one data point that introduces some uncertainty is Arsenal FC's impressive away average of 2.333 goals scored. This suggests that Arsenal FC has the capability to score multiple goals on the road, which could potentially disrupt West Ham United FC's chances of winning if they can capitalize on their scoring opportunities. However, West Ham United FC's home average of 0.333 goals conceded indicates a strong defensive record, which will likely pose a challenge to Arsenal FC's attacking prowess.

West Ham United FC (Home)

DLWDLW
Avg scored (home)1.67
Avg conceded (home)0.33
Avg scored (away)1.00
Avg conceded (away)2.33

Arsenal FC (Away)

DWWWWL
Avg scored (home)1.67
Avg conceded (home)1.00
Avg scored (away)2.33
Avg conceded (away)1.00

Head to Head

Arsenal FC204 Oct 25

Predictions computed using a Poisson distribution model. Data updated nightly. Not gambling advice.

Home
Post-Mortems
Accuracy