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Track Record

How well does the model actually predict? Every resolved prediction is counted — no cherry-picking.

Overall

45%

all resolved

Last 20

35%

recent form

Resolved

167

predictions

Streak

6

in a row incorrect

Brier Score

Measures probability calibration — lower is better. A coin-flip model scores ~0.67. Under 0.55 is strong.

0.733

needs work

Accuracy by confidence

High8/14 correct
57%
Medium62/153 correct
41%

Recent predictions

Burnley FC vs Aston Villa FC

10 May 2026 · Draw

medium✗ Wrong

Brentford FC vs Fulham FC

18 Apr 2026 · Draw

medium✗ Wrong

West Ham United FC vs Arsenal FC

10 May 2026 · Away win

medium✗ Wrong

RC Celta de Vigo vs Sevilla FC

23 May 2026 · Home win

medium✗ Wrong

Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs Sunderland AFC

2 May 2026 · Draw

medium✗ Wrong

Aston Villa FC vs Liverpool FC

15 May 2026 · Home win

medium✓ Correct

Girona FC vs Real Betis Balompié

21 Apr 2026 · Away win

medium✗ Wrong

RB Leipzig vs 1. FC Union Berlin

24 Apr 2026 · Home win

medium✓ Correct

1. FC Köln vs 1. FC Heidenheim 1846

10 May 2026 · Away win

medium✗ Wrong

Everton FC vs Manchester City FC

4 May 2026 · Draw

medium✗ Wrong

Tottenham Hotspur FC vs Brighton & Hove Albion FC

18 Apr 2026 · Draw

medium✗ Wrong

SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim 1846

19 Apr 2026 · Home win

medium✓ Correct

FC Bayern München vs 1. FC Köln

16 May 2026 · Home win

high✓ Correct

Aston Villa FC vs Tottenham Hotspur FC

3 May 2026 · Away win

medium✓ Correct

SV Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg

2 May 2026 · Away win

medium✓ Correct

Arsenal FC vs Newcastle United FC

25 Apr 2026 · Home win

medium✓ Correct

Real Betis Balompié vs Levante UD

23 May 2026 · Home win

medium✓ Correct

Borussia Mönchengladbach vs TSG 1899 Hoffenheim

16 May 2026 · Home win

medium✗ Wrong

Arsenal FC vs Fulham FC

2 May 2026 · Home win

medium✗ Wrong

1. FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Bayern München

25 Apr 2026 · Away win

medium✓ Correct

Updated 05/06/2026

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