Olympique de Marseille
vs Paris FC
Win Probability
Olympique de Marseille Win
Draw
Paris FC Win
form_consistency: 0.017 · h2h_availability: 0.4 · archetype_penalty: 0.2 · data_completeness: 1
Expected Goals (xG)
Scoreline Probabilities
| Olympique de Marseille | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Paris FC | 0 | 12.8% | 19.9% | 18.5% | 11.0% | 4.9% | 1.7% |
| 1 | 3.4% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 4.1% | 1.8% | 0.6% | |
| 2 | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Most likely: 1–0 (19.9%)
Olympique de Marseille's home advantage is evident in their expected goals, boasting a 1.557-goal difference over Paris FC's expected 1.475. This xG gap is a telling indication of the home team's attacking prowess, as they've averaged 2.403 goals scored and just 1.0 conceded in their last six home matches. Meanwhile, Paris FC's away form is relatively poor, with an average of 1.761 goals scored and 1.62 conceded in their last six away matches. This disparity in expected goals and recent home form suggests that Olympique de Marseille will take the victory at home, with a 59.5% win probability.
While Paris FC has shown flashes of brilliance in their away form, their recent streak of two consecutive wins may be a temporary blip. Historically, they've struggled to replicate this success in their next match, with a 20.3% win probability in this fixture. Additionally, the head-to-head pattern shows that Olympique de Marseille has a slight edge, having won three of the last five meetings. Although Paris FC has managed to draw one of these encounters, the home team's superior home form and attacking potency make them the more likely victors.