AFC Bournemouth
vs Manchester City FC

Premier LeagueMatchday 37Sunday, 17 May 2026 · 15:00 GMT

Win Probability

7%

AFC Bournemouth Win

28%

Draw

64%

Manchester City FC Win

verifiedHigh Confidence

form_consistency: 0.538 · h2h_availability: 0.2 · archetype_penalty: 0 · data_completeness: 1

Expected Goals (xG)

AFC Bournemouth0.258
Manchester City FC1.316
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The predicted outcome of this match is a Manchester City FC win, with the away team having a significant advantage. A key statistic that supports this prediction is the win probability, where Manchester City FC has a 64.5% chance of winning, compared to AFC Bournemouth's 7.1%. This substantial gap in win probability suggests that Manchester City FC is the stronger team going into this match.

Despite the predicted outcome, one data point that introduces some uncertainty is AFC Bournemouth's recent form, which includes a win in their last match. Additionally, their home average of 1.0 goal scored per match is notable, and if they can capitalize on this, it could potentially pose a challenge to Manchester City FC's expected dominance, given the away team's average of 1.667 goals scored per match is not dramatically higher than AFC Bournemouth's home average.

AFC Bournemouth (Home)

DDDDDW
Avg scored (home)1.00
Avg conceded (home)1.00
Avg scored (away)0.67
Avg conceded (away)0.33

Manchester City FC (Away)

WWWDDW
Avg scored (home)2.33
Avg conceded (home)1.00
Avg scored (away)1.67
Avg conceded (away)0.33

Head to Head

Manchester City FC312 Nov 25

Predictions computed using a Poisson distribution model. Data updated nightly. Not gambling advice.

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