AFC Bournemouth
vs Leeds United FC

Premier LeagueMatchday 34Wednesday, 22 April 2026 · 20:00 GMT

Win Probability

22%

AFC Bournemouth Win

39%

Draw

39%

Leeds United FC Win

verifiedHigh Confidence

form_consistency: 0.419 · h2h_availability: 0.2 · archetype_penalty: 0 · data_completeness: 1

Expected Goals (xG)

AFC Bournemouth0.516
Leeds United FC0.789
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The predicted outcome of the match between AFC Bournemouth and Leeds United FC is a draw. A key statistic that supports this outcome is the draw win probability, which stands at 39.3%. This is the highest among the three possible outcomes, indicating that the match is likely to end without a clear winner.

Despite the draw prediction, one data point that introduces some uncertainty is the expected goals (xG) gap between the two teams. Leeds United FC has a higher xG of 0.789 compared to AFC Bournemouth's 0.516, suggesting that Leeds United FC might have a slight edge in terms of scoring opportunities. This could potentially lead to an upset, but based on the overall numbers, a draw remains the most likely outcome.

AFC Bournemouth (Home)

DDDDDW
Avg scored (home)1.00
Avg conceded (home)1.00
Avg scored (away)0.67
Avg conceded (away)0.33

Leeds United FC (Away)

DLLDDW
Avg scored (home)0.00
Avg conceded (home)0.67
Avg scored (away)1.00
Avg conceded (away)0.67

Head to Head

Leeds United FC2227 Sept 25

Predictions computed using a Poisson distribution model. Data updated nightly. Not gambling advice.

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