Sunderland AFC
vs Chelsea FC

Premier LeagueMatchday 38Sunday, 24 May 2026 · 16:00 GMT

Win Probability

22%

Sunderland AFC Win

24%

Draw

54%

Chelsea FC Win

infoMid Confidence

form_consistency: 0.09 · h2h_availability: 0.2 · archetype_penalty: 0 · data_completeness: 1

Expected Goals (xG)

Sunderland AFC1.032
Chelsea FC1.754
format_quote

The predicted outcome of this match is a Chelsea FC win, with the away team having a significant advantage. A key statistic that supports this prediction is the win probability, where Chelsea FC has a 54.2% chance of winning, compared to Sunderland AFC's 22.2%. This substantial gap in win probability suggests that Chelsea FC is likely to come out on top.

Despite this, one data point that introduces some uncertainty into this prediction is Sunderland AFC's recent form, where they have won 3 out of their last 6 matches, including 2 consecutive wins. Additionally, their home average of 0.667 goals scored is lower than their away average, but their home average conceded of 1.333 is also lower than their away average conceded, which could indicate some level of home advantage. However, Chelsea FC's away average of 1.667 goals scored is notably higher than Sunderland AFC's home average conceded, which still supports the predicted outcome of a Chelsea FC win.

Sunderland AFC (Home)

LDWLWW
Avg scored (home)0.67
Avg conceded (home)1.33
Avg scored (away)1.33
Avg conceded (away)0.67

Chelsea FC (Away)

DLWLLL
Avg scored (home)0.33
Avg conceded (home)1.67
Avg scored (away)1.67
Avg conceded (away)2.00

Head to Head

Chelsea FC1225 Oct 25

Predictions computed using a Poisson distribution model. Data updated nightly. Not gambling advice.

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