Fulham FC
vs Chelsea FC
Win Probability
Fulham FC Win
Draw
Chelsea FC Win
form_consistency: 0.134 · h2h_availability: 0.4 · archetype_penalty: 0.2 · data_completeness: 1
Expected Goals (xG)
Scoreline Probabilities
| Fulham FC | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Chelsea FC | 0 | 19.2% | 26.1% | 19.7% | 9.7% | 3.5% | 1.0% |
| 1 | 3.5% | 7.1% | 4.6% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Most likely: 1–0 (26.1%)
Fulham's home form suggests a significant advantage, with an expected goals (xG) gap of 1.234 in their favor. At home, Fulham has an average of 1.124 goals scored and 0.322 conceded, while Chelsea's away record shows an average of 0.767 goals scored and 1.911 conceded. This disparity in xG and actual goals scored/conceded suggests that Fulham's home environment gives them a substantial edge, which is reflected in the predicted outcome. With a win probability of 68.5%, Fulham's home dominance is a strong indicator of their likelihood of success.
While Chelsea's away record is concerning, with an average of 1.911 conceded, it's worth noting that Fulham's home team has been solid defensively, conceding just 0.322 goals per match. However, Chelsea's recent form dip, with a loss in four of their last six games, adds uncertainty to their chances. The 1.234 xG gap in Fulham's favor remains a significant concern for Chelsea, and their away form does not suggest they can overcome this deficit, even if Fulham's home team does experience a minor dip in form.