Brighton & Hove Albion FC
vs Aston Villa FC

PLMatchday 1Sunday, 23 August 2026 · 14:00 GMT

Win Probability

33%

Brighton & Hove Albion FC Win

26%

Draw

41%

Aston Villa FC Win

infoSlight Edge
Early Season

form_consistency: 0.017 · h2h_availability: 0.4 · archetype_penalty: 0.2 · data_completeness: 1

Expected Goals (xG)

Brighton & Hove Albion FC1.497
Aston Villa FC1.709

Scoreline Probabilities

Brighton & Hove Albion FC
012345
Aston Villa FC05.5%4.8%4.6%2.3%0.9%0.3%
15.6%11.9%7.9%3.9%1.5%0.4%
26.0%9.0%6.7%3.4%1.3%0.4%
33.4%5.1%3.8%1.9%0.7%0.2%
41.5%2.2%1.6%0.8%0.3%0.1%
50.5%0.7%0.6%0.3%0.1%0.0%

Most likely: 11 (11.9%)

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Aston Villa FC's away form has been impressive, with a higher average score and a significantly lower average conceded compared to their opponents in recent matches. They have an average of 1.535 goals scored and 1.322 conceded on the road, a striking difference from their hosts, Brighton & Hove Albion FC, who have allowed an average of 1.337 goals at home. This suggests that Aston Villa FC's attacking prowess and defensive solidity will be difficult for Brighton & Hove Albion FC to counter, even on their own turf.

While Brighton & Hove Albion FC's home form has been relatively strong, with an average of 1.663 goals scored and 1.337 conceded, the xG gap is telling. Aston Villa FC's expected goals (1.709) are higher than their hosts' (1.497), indicating a slight advantage in possession and quality of chances. However, Brighton & Hove Albion FC's recent form has been inconsistent, with a run of losses and draws that may affect their confidence and cohesion. This inconsistency could be a deciding factor, as Aston Villa FC's momentum and scoring power may prove too much for their hosts to handle.

Brighton & Hove Albion FC (Home)

DWLWLL
Avg scored (home)1.66
Avg conceded (home)1.34
Avg scored (away)0.79
Avg conceded (away)1.88

Aston Villa FC (Away)

WLLDWW
Avg scored (home)3.03
Avg conceded (home)2.23
Avg scored (away)1.53
Avg conceded (away)1.32

Head to Head

Brighton & Hove Albion FC343 Dec 25
Aston Villa FC1011 Feb 26
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