Nottingham Forest FC
vs Leeds United FC

PLMatchday 1Saturday, 22 August 2026 · 15:00 GMT

Win Probability

73%

Nottingham Forest FC Win

19%

Draw

8%

Leeds United FC Win

infoSlight Edge
Early Season

form_consistency: 0.184 · h2h_availability: 0.4 · archetype_penalty: 0.2 · data_completeness: 1

Expected Goals (xG)

Nottingham Forest FC2.322
Leeds United FC0.679

Scoreline Probabilities

Nottingham Forest FC
012345
Leeds United FC06.2%10.9%13.8%10.7%6.2%2.9%
12.4%9.1%9.4%7.3%4.2%2.0%
21.2%2.7%3.2%2.5%1.4%0.7%
30.3%0.6%0.7%0.6%0.3%0.2%
40.0%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.0%
50.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%

Most likely: 20 (13.8%)

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Nottingham Forest FC's dominance at home is evident in their impressive form, with a run of three consecutive wins and an average of 1.614 goals scored per match. Their home defence has been equally solid, conceding just 1 goal on average per match. This defensive solidity, coupled with their strong attacking display, suggests a high likelihood of a Nottingham Forest FC victory. Their expected goals (xG) of 2.322 indicate a strong attacking performance, further supporting this outcome.

The uncertainty in this match could come from Leeds United FC's ability to score away from home, as their average of 0.787 goals scored on the road is still a respectable figure. Additionally, their away form has seen them concede an average of 2.124 goals per match, which may create an opportunity for Nottingham Forest FC to capitalize on. However, given the significant xG gap and Nottingham Forest FC's home form, the probability of an away win for Leeds United FC remains low at 8.2%.

Nottingham Forest FC (Home)

WWWDLD
Avg scored (home)1.61
Avg conceded (home)1.00
Avg scored (away)3.10
Avg conceded (away)1.59

Leeds United FC (Away)

WDWDWL
Avg scored (home)2.11
Avg conceded (home)0.32
Avg scored (away)0.79
Avg conceded (away)2.12

Head to Head

Nottingham Forest FC319 Nov 25
Leeds United FC316 Feb 26
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