Newcastle United FC
vs Liverpool FC
Win Probability
Newcastle United FC Win
Draw
Liverpool FC Win
form_consistency: 0.061 · h2h_availability: 0.4 · archetype_penalty: 0.2 · data_completeness: 1
Expected Goals (xG)
Scoreline Probabilities
| Newcastle United FC | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Liverpool FC | 0 | 0.4% | 0.6% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.6% |
| 1 | 0.1% | 1.9% | 4.0% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 7.2% | |
| 2 | 0.4% | 1.7% | 4.1% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 7.3% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 1.1% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.9% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.5% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
Most likely: 4–2 (7.7%)
Newcastle United FC's home form suggests a significant advantage in this match. At home, they average 2.535 goals scored and 1.233 conceded per match, indicating a potent attack and a solid defense. Their expected goals in this match are 4.755, nearly two and a half times that of Liverpool FC's 2.013. This substantial xG gap suggests that Newcastle United FC will have a clear opportunity to score, which, combined with their strong home form, makes a win a likely outcome.
There is a small uncertainty in Liverpool FC's away form, which has seen them average 2.0 goals scored and 2.98 conceded per match. While this is not an alarming trend, it could potentially lead to a more competitive match than expected, especially if Newcastle United FC's defense falters. However, given the substantial xG gap and Newcastle United FC's strong home form, this uncertainty is unlikely to be enough to swing the outcome in Liverpool FC's favor. The predicted probability of Newcastle United FC winning is 76.2%, and it is reasonable to expect that they will capitalize on their home advantage to secure the three points.